It is I, the resident Patriots fan (at least, the one that actually posts articles on the site) here to offer my quick-take on the Patriots upcoming season. I’ll take a slightly different tact from my Gang-Greenious fellow SimPian Rob Schlesingbrenner’s on his beloved Jets.
Why there’s reason to be optimistic:
The Patriots defense has looked very good in the preseason as has Tom Brady and TE Ben Watson. Watson looks like the second coming of Ben Coates, while Brady hasn’t seemed to miss much without his top two WRs David Givens (Titans) and Deion Branch (acrimonious contract holdout) and looks ready to rip up opposing defenses yet again. The running game features twin-grinders in veteran Corey Dillon and first round draft pick Laurence Maroney. Shifty Kevin Faulk is back for change-of-pace running situations.
Old Man River, otherwise known as Troy Brown, is also back and seems to be capable as the current #1 WR (though Watson appears to be Brady’s new go-to) while rookie Chad Jackson gets his sea legs. The offensive line is stout and playing well together, including rookie RT Ryan O’Callagahan, who deserves to start based on his cool Irish name alone.
The aforementioned defense gets a lift this year with the return of SS Rodney Harrsion (from a crippling knee injury) and the addition of the venerable LB Junior Seau. The D-line is as ferocious as ever with Seymour, Wilfork, and Ty Warren, while former special teamer and backup LB Tully Banta-Cain looks to step into the hybrid defensive lineman/linebacker role occupied previously by the since-departed Willie McGinest (now of the Browns). The CBs are acceptable in Asante Samuel and 2nd year man Ellis Hobbs and they should get help from 3rd year CB Randall Gay as well. This unit looks very strong.
Why there’s reason to be pessimistic
There are a number of question marks on this team headed into Week 1, none bigger than the issue of the wide receiver position. Without Branch and Givens, big components of the last 2 Super Bowl winners, who will Brady throw to when time catches up to Brown and teams start doubling Watson? It sure isn’t Reche Caldwell, who has been abysmal in the preseason, and rookie Chad Jackson doesn’t appear ready to step up into a starting role. It remains to be seen what recent arrival Doug Gabriel (formerly of the Raiders) will bring to the team. He’s a big strong WR (6′4″) that can stretch the field, but he’s going to have to come up to speed on this complex offense pretty quickly.
The Patriots are also going into the season for the first time in 11 or so years without the kicking services of the legendary Adam Vinateri (now of the Colts). In his place, the Patriots have rookie draftee Stephen Gostkowski, who has looked good in the preseason, hitting on 9 of 9 FG attempts, including one over 50+ yards in the last preseason game. But time will only tell if he can handle kicking in bad weather as well as his predecessor. How many games did Adam win for the Patriots kicking late in bad weather?
Lastly, the defense is old in many areas. Bruschi is still not well, and Harrison is still working his way back from the devastating injury which occured less than a year ago. The corners have been victimized in the past, and the team’s on it’s third D coordinator in three years.
The verdict
It could be the optimist in me talking, but I think this team is in a position to possibly dominate the AFC East. The only true challenger to the throne is the Miami Dolphins, and they appear to be one year away or so to really putting it all together. The Bills and Jets are in rebuilding mode and shouldn’t offer up much competition and the rest of the Patriots schedule is not as difficult as it was last year. I think the WR issue will give the team fits until Gabriel or Jackson can step in and address it (or until Branch comes back in Week 10?) but the offense has done without a real running game in the past, so why should the lack of WRs hurt them all that much. Think KC Chiefs, except with a defense that’ll actually stop the other team. Verdict: 12-4, AFC East champions, #2 seed in the playoffs.
Fantasy focus:
Great picks: QB Tom Brady, Patriots DST, TE Ben Watson
Decent picks: RB Corey Dillon
Sleeper picks: RB Laurence Maroney, WR Chad Jackson, K Stephen Gostkowski
Avoid: WR Reche Caldwell
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