In the words of the noted philosopher Palpatine, everything is transpiring as I have foreseen it.

I had previously written about the likely scenario regarding Alex Rodriguez and his departing New York. As I noted a month ago:

Some time in the next couple of weeks, the aptly named Cash-man will present a hefty contract extension, to be attached to the end of the current deal. The Yankees GM will say that negotiations end with the contract — opt out and the Yankee bank vaults close up tight. But why believe him?
With a querulous Steinbrenner trying to re-live his glory days, it seems a fair bet that The Boss could be induced to over-rule his GM. Is it a certainty? No. But it’s a fair risk to take. Besting the three remaining years at $91 million will be as easy as A, B, C (as in Anaheim, Boston, Chicago). So why not take the Yankees offer as a starting point to shop around and see who can do better?

They would opt out counting on the fact that the Yankees’ negotiating stance was neither hard nor fast, and that they would stay involved regardless. It’s looking like A-Rod and Bore-Ass either might not be able to do better. From today’s NY Daily News (also confirmed in the finest paper in the land, the NY Times):

Despite all of the back-and-forth posturing between the Yankees and A-Rod’s camp, the Daily News learned today that the two sides have been discussing a deal for the past few days to keep the two-time MVP in pinstripes, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.The biggest catch? The Yankees don’t want agent Scott Boras involved in the negotiations.

A-Rod himself weighed in today, sharing his feelings with the group (brace yourself for a battle with your gag reflex):

Prior to entering into serious negotiations with other clubs, I wanted the opportunity to share my thoughts directly with Yankees’ ownership. We know there are other opportunities for us, but Cynthia and I have a foundation with the club that has brought us comfort, stability and happiness.

Can you feel the love? If not, your bullshits translator is working well. Why the sudden change of (what we’ll laughably call) heart? Maybe because, as the Times story notes, that there has thus far been little market — the Angels, maybe — for A-Rod. Team A-Rod needs the Yankees either as a bargaining chip or landing spot. So the rapprochement begins, with the absence of Bore-Ass being the fig leaf the Yankees use to alter their position.

Is A-Rod coming back? Chances have gotten better, but I still would not call it likely. Teams that have been lying in wait for A-Rod’s price to drop will start sniffing around more closely if they think the Yankees might lock him back up quickly. As the excellent (even if he is a Pats fan) Peter Abraham notes:

In theory, Alex could come to the Yankees and volunteer to eat the $21.3 million the Yankees are losing from Texas. In theory, aliens could land in Central Park as well.

But doing that would be a complete reversal for A-Rod. I find it hard to believe that he walked away from a $200 million deal from the Yankees (at least) without knowing he could get more someplace else. That the Angels have not even suggested signing him is a problem is telling. Every other team has expressed at least some reservation.

Keep something in mind about A-Rod: He’s image-conscious. He opted out in the most ham-handed way possible — during the World Series, and with an excuse that even by the standards of professional athletes seeking greener pastures was laughable and insulting.

So here are the explanations for the latest development, ranked in order of likelihood:

- For reasons financial (need to have Yankees as a standard against which to induce other teams to bid) and personal (need to maintain his nice-guy image), A-Rod is doing what he should have from the beginning: Play out the Kabuki performance with the Yankees, making all the right noises about willingness to stay, so that when he signs with, say, the Angels, he can talk with great feeling about how hard it was.

- No one is willing to pay more than were the Yankees or, for that matter, than the Yankees’ offer minus the money Texas would have paid had A-Rod not opted out (though I would not be surprised if that money goes back into the contract spread over years four through, say, ten). It may well be that A-Rod has been screaming at Boras for screwing the pooch. Or, as the Neboukars over at NJ.com’s Yankees blog posit,

Maybe Boras is still the architect behind this whole thing. Maybe he’s figured out a way for his client to look good to Yanks fans and earn back a modicum of respect, and for Brian Cashman to be able to sit at a negotiating table with some pride still in tact. And Boras’ reputation goes unscathed, since he won’t be the one at the negotiating table making any concessions.

Too Machiavellian? I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

- As the spearhead to invasion, aliens have abducted A-Rod and replaced him with a clone (question: can the clone hit in the post-season?). They realize that New York is the best place to start their invasion and have the clone acting accordingly. (Remember, this is in order of likelihood.)

- A-Rod has warm-and-fuzzy feelings about being a Yankee and will do whatever it takes to remain with the organization.

To be clear: A-Rod is a flaming doucheburger. But he’s also the best player in the game, and I’ll be delighted if he re-signs. But most likely it’s much ado about nothing.

UPDATE: I wrote a month ago that with a querulous Steinbrenner waiting in the wings, Boras likely told A-Rod to ignore talk of an opt-out closing the door to a Yankees return. This today (11.15.07) in the NY Daily News:

“That’s why he called me, to ask if Hank was serious about closing the door on him,” a second person said yesterday. “From what I gathered, Boras had been telling him not to worry about what Brian Cashman was saying about the opt-out, partly because they knew they had George on their side.

My next prediction? A-Rod will be MVP. You can take it to the bank. (And so can he.)