Snakes In My Pants

Last season was objectively the worst in the history of America’s most popular college football team.  The Notre Dame Fightin’ Irish set records for losses in a season, sacks allowed, and rushing yards per game (low).  While the special teams and defense were bad, the offense was even worse, ranking at or near last in Division I-A football in most objective offensive categories.

There was a confluence of factors that resulted in the debacle that was the 2007 season.  This “perfect storm” began first with the Irish playing an incredibly difficult schedule, facing 10 teams that went to a bowl game, far more than anyone else in Division I-A.  Second, recruiting and attrition from 2003-2006 left the Irish embarrassingly young and thin at key positions such as QB, RB, WR, Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebacker, and Kicker.  Third, their schedule did not line up with a young offensive team; that is, it was incredibly front-loaded with road games and defensive-minded teams like Georgia Tech, Penn State, and Michigan.  Fourth, the coaching staff had survived for 2 years by running an NFL-style training camp and practice regime without any emphasis on fundamentals/emotion/technique/energy and instead focusing on nuanced execution.  With such a young and inexperienced team, this focus was misplaced and left a young team confused, under-prepared, and not physically able to compete.

And so the page turns to 2008.  Charlie Weis has re-dedicated himself and his coaching staff to more physical practices, emphasizing and focusing on the fundamentals, emotion, aggression, and toughness.  He hired blitz-happy, uber-aggressive John Tenuta as a defensive assistant.  He turned over play-calling duties to his offensive coordinator so he can focus on special teams and the entire roster.  The starting offensive linemen gained an average of 18 pounds each in the off-season, including 30+ pounds by right tackle Sam Young.  QB Jimmy Clausen got healthy and he even gained 17 pounds of muscle.  The Irish raked in the #1 recruiting class in the nation, including key play-makers that could make an instant impact like WR Michael Floyd and TE Kyle Rudolph.  Will it be enough for a winning season?

The Offense:  ND’s offense in 2005 and 2006 APPEARED to be one of the most prolific in all of college football.  In actuality, as I stated in last year’s preview, Brady Quinn’s passing ability, and the abilities of Jeff Samardzija and Darius Walker, hid a lot of warts on Notre Dame’s offense.  ND’s offensive line gave up 30 sacks in 2006 and then a record-setting 57 in 2007.  They were last in all of college football in running the ball.  The passing game was little better as even when Irish QBs got the ball off, it was routinely dropped by Irish Wide Receivers.  The offense in 2008 returns everyone except all-American Tight End John Carlson.   If the increased strength and size, combined with more physical practices and a year of experience will help the offense to rise to the next level, they will have the play-makers at RB and WR to score a lot more this year.  Based on 2007, that’s a big if.  Jimmy Clausen has looked great, not good, in spring and fall practices and scrimmages, but the young Irish receivers are still dropping a lot of his precise passes.  Expect the Irish to attempt a power-running game, taking advantage of their 4 talented RBs. 

The Defense:  ND’s biggest weakness is it’s defensive line.  The Irish will be very weak against the run and teams that can exploit that weakness will have success against Notre Dame by running up the middle and using the play-action pass.  John Tenuta’s blitzing linebackers will attempt to help out the line and hide that weakness by blitzing on nearly every down, but that kind of aggression can lead to big plays for the opposition.  The ND secondary is big and fast and can tackle, but over the summer they lost their best CB, Darrin Walls. 

The Schedule:

September 6, San Diego State – The Irish finally get a patsy game to open the season.  This is how Ohio State, Texas, LSU, Florida, Nebraska, Oklahoma and every other national powerhouse traditionally begin their season, but it is the first time Notre Dame has done it in years.  I don’t know much about SDSU, but I know they finished 4-8 in the Mountain West Conference last year and they return only 11 starters.  This is the tune-up game the Irish need to settle into the 2008 season.  Notre Dame’s superior athletes and experience should push Notre Dame past an over-matched Aztec team.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 41, SDSU 10.

September 13, Michigan – And so the bell-weather game of the entire season comes in the annual week-2 match-up against the Michigan Wolverines.  Many college football pundits point to THIS game as the telling game of the entire season for both rebuilding programs.  Michigan returns almost all of their nationally-elite defense, which obviously poses big problems for the fledgling Notre Dame defense.  That’s the bad news.  The good news is that Michigan’s offense will probably be as bad as their defense is good.  The Wolverines lost BOTH their QBs, their top two RBs, their top 2 WRs, and 4/5 of their O-line.  In addition, new HC Rich Rodriguez comes from West Virginia along with his spread-option offensive scheme.  The spread will be deadly once Michigan recruits the elite athletes to run it.  The problem is that the ’08 Wolverines are comprised of players recruited to play ex-coach Lloyd Carr’s pro-style system.  This is one of the hardest games to predict, but I think the Wolverine defense will shut down the struggling ND offensive attack.  This game could be determined by special teams and turnovers.    Prediction:  Michigan 13, Notre Dame 10.

September 20, @ Michigan State – Things don’t get an easier for the Irish in week 3.  The road team has won this game for 6 straight years, but Michigan State may be the biggest challenge the Irish face in the early part of the season.  The Spartans do one thing the Irish can’t stop:  they run the ball.  Javon Ringer has given the Irish defense fits for years, and with the game being in East Lansing, I give Spartie a big edge.  While the Irish offense should be able to move the ball against MSU, it may not get much of a chance as Ringer and Co. will control the clock and keep the ball.  Prediction:  MSU 24, Notre Dame 13.

September 27, Purdue – There is rarely a valid excuse for Notre Dame to lose to Purdue, and that is more true when the game is at home.  Notre Dame had it’s best game of the first half of 2007, albeit still losing, in West Lafayette and this year’s Purdue team lacks the offensive playmakers they had last year.  Nothing would make Joe Tiller happier in his last season than a win at ND, but I don’t see it happening.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 27, Purdue 17.

October 4, Stanford – Stanford ranks with SDSU, Stanford, and Navy as games the Irish have absolutely no excuse for losing.  The Irish played horribly last year in the finale, yet still managed to beat the Cardinal in Palo Alto.  The game turns now to South Bend and the Irish offense SHOULD be able to make progress against the woeful Stanford defense.  HC Jim Harbaugh may end up turning the Cardinal program around, but not this year.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 34, Stanford 13.

October 11, @ North Carolina – The trip to Chapel Hill begins a four game stretch that will define the Notre Dame season.  UNC, Washington, Pitt, and BC are all teams that Notre Dame is better than on paper, but 3 games are on the road and all of them are against opponents that either have a grudge against ND or have something to prove.  UNC is certainly no exception.  HC Butch Davis is in the middle of building the Heels into an ACC powerhouse and his young team is loaded with talent.  The only thing is that talent is younger than Notre Dame’s, and it isn’t as deep.  This game could go either way, and thankfully Chapel Hill isn’t much of a home-field advantage.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 24, UNC 14.

October 25, @ Washington – The cultural and political undertones in this game are obvious.  ND and HC Charlie Weis are almost in a no-win situation.  A win against a UW team that only won two conference games last year and finished 4-9 would garner little respect or credibility, despite the emergence of Husky sophomore QB Jake Locker and the Husky’s home-field advantage.  A loss would underscore the seething resentment that many uneducated sportswriters and pundits, as well as many race-baiting activists, still hold over the unceremonious firing of Ty Willingham following the 2004 season.  The actual public record, largely ignored by the likes of John Suanders and Pat Forde, include the facts that 1) Ty Willingham was a horrible recruiter save his first season, 2)Willingham refused to replace assistant coaches at the request of the school when such an act would have saved his job, 3) Willingham began open negotiations with UW BEFORE Notre Dame ever fired him, 4) ND was one of only 7 schools to EVER hire an African-American coach in the first place, and 5) his performance at Stanford and Washington have done very little to vindicate their opinions of victimization and racism.  As an aside, their rancor and incessant sniping at ND since the firing has done more to HURT the chances of African-Americans being hired than help.

But I digress:  back to the field of play.  UW is a miserable team outside of the electric Locker.  His scrambling abilities will be very problematic for ND’s poor front-7 defense and he will convert 3^rd downs and move the ball.  All of the Washington players will “bow up” for their coach in what could be a very emotional and physical game.  But emotions usually fade by the 3^rd quarter and the fact is that Willingham is a bad coach, he has bad assistants, and beside Locker, his team is made up of bad players.  Predication:  Notre Dame 31, Washington 21.

November 1, Pittsburgh – Pitt is the media darling in the Big East this year.  Several so-called experts look at Pitt’s defensive victory over #2 WVU last year as well as the return of all-conference RB LeSean McCoy as reasons for optimism in 2008.  Pitt has not gone to a bowl game, however, under HC Dave Wannstadt, whose NFL tenure at Chicago and Miami was equally mediocre.  Still, Pitt has recruited very well and McCoy is the kind of runner than can gash ND’s defense for 150+ yards.  Home-field might make this a game, but I don’t see the Irish stopping McCoy.  Prediction:  Pitt 27, Notre Dame 14.

November 8, @ Boston College – Here we go again.  Every single year the BC game comes at the worst possible moment on the ND schedule.  This year, it is sandwiched between what could be a pivotal game against Pitt and a revenge game against Navy on the road.  As usual, Notre Dame has scores more talent than BC, but since 1993, this game has not been settled based on the talent disparity.  The Eagles have won 6 consecutive games against Notre Dame, including last year’s closer-than-expected win in South Bend.

This is one of the games along with Pitt, Purdue, and Michigan State that Notre Dame has to consistently win on a yearly basis.  These low-to-middle level programs simply should never beat Notre Dame, and yet they have as of late.  If ND is going to return to an elite status in college football, they need to win games like this in the middle of the season.

On the field, BC has to replace A LOT of experience.  BC only returns 10 starters, including only 4 from their highly-ranked rush defense of a year ago.  Most importantly, they have to replace all of their skill-position players on offense including QB Matt Ryan.  The Eagle’s inexperience on offense should keep them from establishing a running game against ND, while the Irish should be able to run and pass against the green BC defense.  The timing of the game isn’t good for BC either, as the game follows a visit from ACC heavyweight Clemson and precedes a trip to Tallahassee to play Florida State.  BC is younger than Notre Dame and not as deep or talented.  While they undoubtedly have confidence in their ability to beat ND, it won’t happen this year.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 31, BC 13.

November 15, @ Navy – Like BC, Purdue, Michigan and others, the Navy game gives the Irish a chance for revenge.  The game in Baltimore is virtually a home game for Notre Dame and an improved ND team should have little trouble starting a new streak against Navy who will be playing without their HC Paul Johnson, who moved on to Georgia Tech.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 37, Navy 17.

November 22, Syracuse – There is a very good chance Syracuse HC Greg Robinson could be fired by this point in the season.  In 4 years at Syracuse, Robinson has amassed a 7-28 record and his teams have consistently been the worst in the Big East.  By this point in the season, the Orange will be beaten up and demoralized.  The Irish, who should be fighting for a major bowl bid at this point, should be sufficiently motivated the crush the Orange.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 34, Syracuse 10.

November 29, @ Southern Cal – USC is arguably the best team in the country and over the past 6 years they have saved their absolute best football for arch-rival Notre Dame.  There is a good chance they will be playing for a shot at the national championship and trying to impress pollsters.  They are also playing at home.  USC’s offensive line and RBs should have no problem gashing the Irish defense, while Ray Maualuga and company on defense should harass Jimmy Clausen and the Irish backs all night.  This won’t be pretty.  Prediction:  USC 42, Notre Dame 10.

Season Results:

The Irish could go anywhere between 5-7 or 10-2.  The Pitt, BC, Washington, UNC, Michigan, and Michigan State games will make the difference.  A sweep of those 6 games would result in a BCS berth, while getting swept would negate bowl eligibility.  Based on a game-by-game analysis, I see the Irish going 8-4.  That would line the Irish up for a berth in the Cotton, Gator, Citrus, or Insight Bowl.