Snakes In My Pants

MLB.com just sent a promotional email into my mailbox with a game that allows you to predict where the top 15 free agents (including Joe Torre) will sign in the offseason.  You pick the team you think they will land with and then give a confidence rating from 1-15.  Doesn’t take too long to make your picks.  For what it’s worth, my top confidence pick is that Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera will resign with the Yankees (15 and 14 respectively), while my least-confident pick was Andruw Jones to the Baltimore Orioles.  They do love their over-the-hill Atlanta free agents in Charm City.

At 1-3, the New York Jets are done as surely as are the choke-artist New York Mets. It’s time for the fellows in green and white to look to the future. Chad Pennington’s time has come and he must be gone.

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The NY Daily News’ Gary Myers does a nice job of quantifying the dismal state of last year’s top NFL running backs. It’s safe to say that most fantasy football draft tip sheets ranked Ladanian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson and Frank Gore in some order in the top five RBs.

Tomlinson, last year’s MVP, is not the only elite back struggling. He led the league with 1,815 yards in ‘06, but has only 130 yards, No. 33 overall, after three games. He’s gone from averaging 113 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry to 43.3 yards per game and 2.3 per carry. Kansas City’s Larry Johnson, who finished second last year with 1,789 yards, has 140 and is tied for 30th. San Francisco’s Frank Gore was third with 1,695 last year and is No. 24 with 177. Tiki Barber, who finished fourth last year, is the only one with a valid excuse for invisible numbers - he retired. St. Louis’ Steven Jackson, No. 5 last year with 1,528 yards, is No. 16 with 233.

So how many rebounds do we expect?

Watching the conclusion of the Duke-Northwestern game on an internet GameTracker Saturday night caused me to think of the Vegas episode of Friends when Monica is cleaning up on craps, and Chandler tells her if she wins again they’ll get married. Everyone is yelling at her to roll and she says: “Shut Up! This just got interesting!”

So, the interesting question now is: Can Duke (1-2) beat Notre Dame (0-3) when they meet in South Bend on November 17? Duke beat a reasonably non-laughable 2-0 Northwestern team, 20-14, in Illinois, and controlled the game almost throughout (they epitomized the “bend-don’t-break” defense in the 4th quarter, bending nearly in half and doing all but giving the game away).

Duke also hung with, and had a chance to beat UVA in Charlottesville a week ago. The Hoos probably aren’t very good either, but UVA did follow up by beating UNC on the road, and are now 2-1.

How good are these teams, relatively speaking? Well, per CBS Sportsline’s 120 Poll (for whatever it’s worth), Duke rocketed up to #102 after beating previous #56 Northwestern. UVA is #54, and that game was pretty even. Notre Dame? They’re now ranked #100. WOWZA. Even Syracuse is ranked higher, at #92.

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With the signing of Ronnie Belliard to a two-year deal, and all the hot talk of re-signing Dmitri Young, the Nationals are apparently leaning toward, as GM Jim Bowden has been fond of saying lately: “We’re building up, not tearing down.”

Spurred by this, and by Barry Svrluga’s blog post of just a few hours ago, it gives me two thoughts simultaneously, both very exciting and equally horrifying:

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Well, SIMP’s own Scott Smith isn’t exactly a former NFL MVP and league rushing title holder, but rumor has it that he didn’t kiss a girl until he was standing at the altar, much like Shaun Alexander, apparently.  It seems fitting that I traded Shaun-the-24-year-old-virgin to Scott in the FANDO Fantasy Football League last season, then.

By the looks of things, —>

Shaun chose WISELY to wait.  I’m hoping, however, I punted (on) him at the right time.  That fact that Alexander is publishing his autobiography NOW, at age 30 (when the 2007 season begins), I think, portends POORLY for Scott. 

Willis McGahee? Thomas Jones? Michael Turner? Brandon Jacobs has to be bumming.

Kansas City Star columnist Jason Whitlock has an interesting suggestion for the Chiefs:

I’d consider trading Larry Johnson rather than handing him a lucrative contract extension.

Most of the article is given over to discussion of how Johnson is a TO-like clubhouse cancer, but then he gets to the part that I find most compelling (attention fantasy football owners who have LJ < >):

Johnson carried the ball an NFL-record 416 times last year. In the history of the league, nine running backs have accumulated 390-plus carries in a season. Only one, Eric Dickerson, continued to ascend after toting the rock that many times. Everyone else faded quickly.

What do we think the odds are of LJ playing double-digit games next year?

This paragraph, buried in a Newark Star-Ledger story on the Jets, should send send shivers through fantasy football players everywhere:

[Jets GM Mike] Tannenbaum pointed out that the Jets’ running-back-by-committee approach is being employed by many teams and is the wave of the future. He hinted that’s the direction in which the team will continue to go.

Emphasis added by me. Yikes.

So, I’m watching the Jets-Fins game on MNF.  The final game of Week 16.   Week 16, otherwise known as “Championship Week” in most fantasy football leagues.  I’m in the championship game in one league, and starting this game, I’m leading by roughly 10 points, 150-140 (and some odd decimals on each side).  My opponent, after having T.O. largely soil the bed (despite a TD) in the Eagles-Cowboys game, has only Jason Taylor remaining.   If the Jets - and effectively, stud rookie left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson - can fend off all-pro right end Taylor just enough, I’ll take home my 2nd title in this league (3rd FFL title overall, and 4th fantasy sports championship [i have one in b'ball]).  I don’t think I’ve ever pinned my hopes on ONE guy, in ONE game, this singularly.  In any event, C’MON BRICK!!

Argh.  JT just got a sack.  2 points.  With one tackle, he’s got 3.  Hang on, baby! Hang on!!!

Ed update:  It’s halftime, and JT still has 3 points.  I’m still up 7+.  JT’s average is about 8 fpts/game.